National Security
Key Points
Risks from oil depletion (see: The Oil Crunch, securing the UK's energy future)
- Shell expects:
- Energy demand will increase for decades
- "Easy oil" supplies cannot meet this demand alone
- "Increased use of energy means rising greenhouse gas emissions at a time when climate change looms large as a critical issue."
- Little spare capacity of manpower, drilling rigs
- IEA 2007 reference scenario expects annual production growth of 1.3%/yr.
- Production growth over previous 25 years was 1%/yr
- Non-OPEC growth in that time was 1.1%/yr, OPEC was 0.9%/yr
- Non-OPEC production expected to be level for next 30 years, hence OPEC growth will need to be 1.8%/yr to make up for demand.
“The oil investments required may be much, much higher than what people assume. This is a dangerous situation.”
….“We are of the opinion that the public isn't aware of the role of the decline rate of existing fields in the energy supply balance, and that this rate will accelerate in the future.”
- Fatih Birol, IEA chief economist
- Global peaking will create far greater geopolitical side-effects, even in regions with stable or rising oil production (Geopolitical Peak Oil Feedback Loops Revisited (Jeff Vail))
- 1. Return on Investment: Increased scarcity of energy, as well as increased prices, increase the return on investment for attacks that target energy infrastructure.
- 2. Mercantilism: To avoid the dawning “bidding cycles” between crude oil price increases and demand destruction, Nation-States are increasingly returning to a mercantilist paradigm on energy. This is the attitude of “there isn’t enough of it to go around, and we can’t afford to pay the market price, so we need to lock up our own supply.”
- 3. “Export-Land” Model: Jeffrey Brown (westexas on The Oil Drum), has proposed a geopolitical feedback loop that he calls the export-land model (most recently discussed in his Iron Triangle post).
- 4. Nationalism: Because our Westphalian system is fundamentally broken, the territories of nations and states are rarely contiguous.
- 5. Privateering: Nationalist insurgencies and economies ruined by the downslide of the “export-land” effect will leave huge populations with no conventional economic prospects. We are seeing exactly this effect in Nigeria.
Are the Government's Energy Statistics Reliable Enough?
- Long considered "the gold standard" of energy information, the numbers from EIA, which is run by the Department of Energy, are regularly cited by the media and politicians alike.
- Budget shortfalls, large staff cuts, and neglect under past administrations, observers say, are compromising both the quality and quantity of EIA's data, leaving the agency frustratingly handcuffed as energy markets are moving faster and becoming increasingly complex.
- In 1981, the EIA's budget was $90 million. Today, in real terms, it's less than half that.
- Without resources to track foreign oil markets, observers say, EIA underestimated China and India's rising oil use. Then, last year, it initially failed to register how quickly U.S. oil demand was falling, partly because it has limited resources to monitor biofuels.
Will US, China face off in Africa over oil reserves?
- China, now the world's number two oil consumer, has spent decades currying favor with African nations.
- In February [2009], Chinese president Hu Jintao made a four-country African tour, during which he signed loan and aid deals worth more than $100 million, according to a South African news Web site, www.iol.co.za.
- Kwong does not expect these low prices to last more than a few months to a couple of years. In his Hong Kong Economic Times article he stated, "It can be scientifically proven that the world oil reserve is 1,262 billion barrels and the world population is growing steadily…. Based on the present daily consumption of 80 million barrels (per day) and the rising oil demand it is estimated oil supplies will be depleted by 2050."
The Imminent Crash Of The Oil Supply
- Joint Operating Environment
- Annual Oil Production Worldwide
- Saudi Arabia's Crude Oil Production Peaked in 2005
- Peak Oil: an Outlook on Crude Oil Depletion (Campbell)
- Worldwide Refinery Capacity
- Peak oil: A detailed and transparent analysis
- PEAK OIL: Is It Real? When Might It Occur? (Simmons)
- Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels (Hubbert)
- Peak oil is a done deal
- Introduction to Peak Oil
- OPEC Reported Oil Reserves
- Worries swelling over oil shortage
- Thoughts about "oil era" and "peak oil"
Exporting countries depend on oil revenues to maintain political stability
Links
- Slideshow: Powering a Far-flung Military
- A Less Well-Oiled War Machine
- Can the U.S. military move to renewable fuels?
- China seeks oil for arms in Latin America
- Peak Oil could trigger meltdown of society
- Turning Oil Into Bullets Part Two
- Governing the ungovernable
- The Next Disaster: Narco violence is exploding--just as oil prices are plunging and Mexico is bracing for a deep U.S. recession.
- With oil prices falling, Iran's good times are almost over
- Oil ShockWave
- Ariz. police say they are prepared as War College warns military must prep for unrest; IMF warns of economic riots
- Global Economy Plays Major Role in U.S. Energy Strategy
- Will Mexico Fail in 2009 or 2010?
- Iran May Scrap Subsidies on Fuel as Oil Income Drops
- Guns, butter and petroleum
- The curse of Nigerian oil
- Future Coalition Operating Environment: Interoperability Challenges for the Future
- The Worst Is Yet to Be
- Geopolitical Peak Oil Feedback Loops Revisited (Jeff Vail)
- Slumping Oil Prices Provide an Opening on Iran
- Iraq was the first 'resource war' of the century
- How Dangerous Is This Man? [Hugo Chavez]
- US commander says falling oil prices will force Iraq to make cuts in security spending
- CIA Adds Economy To Threat Updates
- Defense Focus: Warming wars -- Part 1
- National Security and the Threat of Climate Change
- Environmental Change and Security Program Report
- Climate Change, Demography, Environmental Degradation, and Armed Conflict
- Military embraces green energy
- Europe Forum Lucerne: Energy – A Conflict Area, Trends and Horizons
- Internet Interrupted: Why Architectural Limitations Will Fracture the 'Net
- RAND says cost of oil supply disruption worst threat
- Moscow warns of future energy wars
- Retired military chiefs: Time to shift from oil
- Military Officers Tie Energy To National Security (NPR)
- Green Camo: Seeing Through the Military’s New Environmentalism
- Challenges and Implications for the Future Joint Force
- Amid Africa's oil boom, U.S. binds ties
- China’s quest for African oil
- Top military minds mull climate change, energy efficiency, new fuels and national security
- Transcript: Energy, Security & The Long War of the 21st Century
- Fuel-Thirsty U.S. Navy Pledges 50% Cut in Oil Use by 2020, and More
page revision: 48, last edited: 26 Apr 2010 22:05