Discoveries

Key Points

• Cumulative production is ~1/2 of cumulative discoveries
• Cumulative discovery curve is sigmoidal
• Cumulative production curve is exponential
• Discoveries peaked in 1964
• Production exceeded discoveries every year since 1983
• Decadal discoveries have Gaussian distribution with mean in mid-1960's
• Discoveries for the decade 2000-2010 are expected to be ~100 Gbl
• Current demand is 310 Gbl per decade
• Number of discoveries has been nearly constant since 1980s, but discovered field sizes are decreasing

Links

• Energy Export Databrowser
• Application of the Dispersive Discovery Model
• The Derivation of "Logistic-shaped" Discovery
• Volume of reserves often overstated
• Expert: No oil off coast
• The Twenty First Century: The World's Endowment of Conventional Oil and its Depletion, C.J. Campbell