Discoveries

Key Points

  • Cumulative production is ~1/2 of cumulative discoveries
  • Cumulative discovery curve is sigmoidal
  • Cumulative production curve is exponential
  • Discoveries peaked in 1964
  • Production exceeded discoveries every year since 1983
  • Decadal discoveries have Gaussian distribution with mean in mid-1960's
  • Discoveries for the decade 2000-2010 are expected to be ~100 Gbl
  • Current demand is 310 Gbl per decade
  • Number of discoveries has been nearly constant since 1980s, but discovered field sizes are decreasing
Disc_Prod.jpg
Growing_Gap.jpg
DiscoveryVolumeperDecade.png
Disc_consumption_by_decade.jpg
BP_2008_Oil_Export_MZM_WLD_0ME.png

Links

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